Mon Sep 19, 2011 10:20pm IST
LONDON, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Russian Urals crude traded at parity to the benchmark dated BFOE on Monday despite a worsening outlook for refining margins as traders said they anticipated a short October export plan in the Mediterranean from the world's top oil producer.
In the Platts window, Vitol bid for a 80,000-tonne Urals cargo in the Mediterranean at parity to dated BFOE but found no sellers, traders said.
"It is probably even stronger than this. The upside risk is in a short export programme although (refining) margins are obviously on the downside," said a major player in the Mediterranean.
Russia plans to cut exports through Black Sea ports in the fourth quarter and raise then from the Baltic, a quaterly export schedule showed last week.
Crude oil exports via the Druzhba pipeline to Europe are also expected to increase by around 7 percent
There was no public activity in the Baltic Urals market on Monday and traders said they were afraid of making deals until Russia approves changes to the tax regime.
The reforms will cut the marginal rate of crude oil export duty, while increasing the duty on some refined products, making it uneconomic to process and export heavy fuel oil.
"You can't trade domestic crude before it becomes clear what will happen on the export front. Everyone is awaiting a decision on the cut in crude export duties," one trader said.
Some analysts have suggested the cut in crude oil export duties might be postponed by a few months as Russia needs more budget revenues ahead of the presidential elections in March 2012.
The increase in products duties has been already approved while a cut in crude export duties has yet to be signed.
High-sulphur fuel oil cracks, one of the key drivers for Urals prices, stood at minus $15 a barrel, an improvement from minus $18 on Friday but still far off August peaks of minus $7.
Brent crude futures fell more than 2 percent on Monday as mounting concern over the euro zone debt crisis exacerbated investor fears about the demand outlook for commodities.
For a database of oil supply and demand fundamentals upstream and downstream, Reuters subscribers can click here (Reporting by Dmitry Zhdannikov; Editing by William Hardy)
